Spain will be one of the oldest populations in Europe
Spain will become by 2050 one of the EU countries with an aging population. For every 10 people of working age retirees will be 6, ie, the dependency ratio will rise from 24.3% in 2009 to 58.7% in 2050, twenty points above the EU average (38%).
The study highlights that Spain is the Member State where the economic downturn has caused a greater fall in immigration, 31% between 2008 and 2009, mostly from Morocco, Ecuador and Romania. And emigration has increased by 33% annually between 2006 and 2009, mainly because the output of EU citizens, especially Romanians.
"In absolute terms, Spain seems to be the country most affected by the recession, which has caused a drop in immigration since 2007 (especially Moroccans and citizens of Latin America) and increased migration (especially from EU nationals) "
However, the Commission predicted that after the immigration crisis will recover, albeit at levels much lower than the previous stage. This will make the population of Spain will grow by 16% by 2050, reaching 53.2 million inhabitants.
The current fertility rate in Spain (1.4 children per woman) is below the EU average (1.6) and far below the replacement rate (2.1) necessary for a population to be self-sufficient. In addition, Spanish women tend to have their children later than the EU average (at age 31 on average, compared to 29.7 years). According to the projections of Brussels, the fertility rate will increase only slightly (to 1.52 between now and 2050).
As regards life expectancy, Spanish women are living more years across the EU (84.9 years compared to 82.4 on average) than men and also the EU average (78.7 years versus 76.4). In the next forty years will increase to 88.6 and 83.7, respectively. The result is that spending on pensions will increase from 10.4% of GDP in 2009 to 15.1% in 2060 (above the EU average, which stands at 12.6%), and health expenditures grow from 6.8% to 7.2% (compared to 8.2% on average).